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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-12-29T06:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-29T06:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36050/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo directed towards the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery. The source is likely related to an eruption and subsequent M2.0 flare from from Active Region 13939 (S17E30) starting around 2024-12-29T04:40Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed around the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T15:44Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-31T20:16Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-29 09:13
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-29 06:24
 - Radial speed: 1114.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S26E20
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M3.5 (S17E33). Peak at 2024-12-29 05:41
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 632.81 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-12-31 20:16 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.87 hours)
Lead Time: 33.40 hour(s)
Difference: -4.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-12-30T06:20Z
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